North-western Europe’s 2026 consumption potato crop could fall to 20.695 million tonnes following a sharp reduction in planted area and difficult growing conditions marked by heat and drought, according to a first harvest estimate from the North-Western European Potato Growers (NEPG).

The forecast represents a 25.4% decline from the 27.750 million tonnes produced in 2025 and leaves production 13.7% below the five-year average of 23.986 million tonnes.

The area planted with consumption potatoes across Belgium, Germany, France and the Netherlands has fallen to 521,455 hectares, down 13.7% from 604,162 hectares last year. Average yield is currently estimated at 40.5 tonnes per hectare, compared with 47.0 tonnes per hectare in 2025 and a five-year average of 44.7 tonnes.

NEPG stressed that the figures remain preliminary, with some crops still capable of further growth and much of the harvest yet to be lifted. However, it said the 2026 crop could become one of the lowest of the past decade.

Weather conditions have also affected tuber size and length, potentially creating difficulties for processing applications requiring larger or longer potatoes. NEPG expects some growers, particularly in Belgium and France, to have difficulty supplying the tonnages agreed under contract.

Belgium is currently expected to record the steepest production decline, with output estimated at 3.431 million tonnes, 35.3% below 2025. German production is forecast to fall 24.3% to 7.550 million tonnes, France by 21.5% to 6.485 million tonnes and the Netherlands by 23.5% to 3.229 million tonnes.

Drought and temperatures well above normal affected much of the NEPG region during July and August. Northern Germany and parts of the Netherlands north of the major rivers were among the exceptions, with rainfall closer to normal levels. Even where irrigation was available, NEPG said crops frequently failed to develop and bulk normally, while irrigation was restricted or prohibited in some areas.

The organisation is calling on processors and traders to show greater flexibility over specifications as growers face reduced volumes and smaller tuber sizes. Competition for suitable potatoes could also increase because fresh-market demand remains strong in southern and eastern Europe, while Great Britain is expected to require potatoes and processed products following its own hot and dry summer.

NEPG also expects the processing campaign to be shorter than usual. Old-crop potatoes continued to be used into the first half of September, while availability of early potatoes next season will depend on growing conditions and potential supplies from other production regions.

Other concerns identified for the crop include wireworm damage, Stolbur and early sprouting, which could create additional challenges during storage.

Looking further ahead, NEPG said the sector needs to accelerate development of varieties better able to withstand heat, drought and late blight while requiring less nitrogen. It also called for further work on farming practices including water storage, improved irrigation, agroforestry, higher soil humus levels and mulching.