The Union published the regulation in June that requires member states to withdraw authorization for CIPC-based products by January 8, 2020 and ensure all existing stocks are used up by October 8, 2020.

These dates represent the upper limits of what member states can choose and it is now down to each country to set withdrawal and use-up dates within those limits. The Commission decided to not renew the approval of CIPC because of concerns around dietary risks for consumers eating CIPC-treated potatoes.

While the ban of CIPC in the EU has been in the works for months and was expected within the industry, finding viable alternatives is not easy. Even so, a few options are available, for example, ethylene gas or green mint oil, but each comes with its positives and negatives.

Dirk Garos, director Technical Systems at Restrain, a company which markets ethylene gas-based solutions for potato storage, says that the firm anticipated the CIPC ban and so managed to prepare more efficient production of their equipment. Using 20 years of experience, Restrain came up with the latest design and technology to make the solution even more easy to apply. The company’s machines are now so-called autonomous plug-and-play systems, with installation being no more than five minutes. A system is made up of a Restrain Generation and sensor, which supply a very low concentration of ethylene gas. This dynamic gas weights roughly the same as air. Hence, it can spread all over the potatoes, regardless of whether they are stored in bulk or containers.

When asked what the advantages of using ethylene gas are, over other alternatives like green mint oil, Garos says that ethylene-treated stored potatoes can be processed immediately, without any waiting time. By comparison mint oil-treated potatoes need two to four weeks waiting time before they can be processed.

“What’s more, ethylene gas produced in situ is four to six times cheaper. It’s the safest gas, which leaves no taint or smell. The dynamic gas is continuously kept on a very low concentration, until the end of the storage season. Operators do not require a closed or sealed cold store, as the Restrain equipment is designed for compensation on storage leakage. The daily flushing to keep CO2 levels low is not an issue, since ethylene uptake by receptors in the potatoes keep the spuds dormant for three days,” further explains Garos.

Speaking of which, AHDB has been exploring a more holistic approach to tackle the challenge of storing potatoes. One of its projects aims to determine and increase industry awareness of the dormancy of different potato varieties, in a bid to answer the question: Can the industry use the dormancy of potato varieties for long-term  storage in the post-CIPC era? Currently, information on the expected dormancy period for potato varieties – the period before sprouting begins – is both sparse and conflicting, meaning growers are compelled to use a one-size-fits all approach, when applying sprout suppressants.

“What we are looking to do is improve the efficacy of sprout control and reduce costs by using longer dormant cultivars. Varieties are not all interchangeable, but sectors and customers will have a range, and it’s within this range that we are looking to gain advantages,” said Adrian Briddon, storage senior scientist at Sutton Bridge Crop.

He goes on to say that it isn’t all down to dormancy either. Sprouting pressure and sprout suppressant requirements are also related to storage temperature. When information on low temperature tolerance is available – the ability to hold varieties at lower temperature without accumulating fry color damaging reducing sugars – then will the industry be able to practice integrated control of sprouting and minimize the use of post-harvest treatments.

The project makes use of AHDB’s Strategic Potato (SPot) Farm network: Sutton Bridge is currently overseeing trials at two SPot farms, looking at the dormancy characteristics of up to 40 popular varieties, as well as some new entrants to the market.

In the context of the upcoming CIPC ban, it is also worth noting is that recently, the restriction on the use of products containing Maleic Hydrazide (MH) has been removed, following a review by the Chemicals Regulation Division (CRD) of the HSE. But it is a viable alternative?

AHDB’s own review of MH states that reductions in the permitted treatment rates for CIPC have driven an increase in MH use in recent years. A total of 20,000 acres (15% of all crop) was treated in the UK in 2016 and there was some reversal of previously limited acceptance of MH use within fresh market crops for some markets, notably for short dormant varieties.

In recent trials, combinations containing MH, used in conjunction with other active substances have performed better than single products alone. Combination treatments including MH were also exclusively used in commercial processing stores visited in mainland Europe in spring 2019. This included stores of up to 4,000 tons capacity using BioxM (spearmint oil) or 1-4 Sight (dimethylnaphthalene).

Basically the conclusion was that MH as a stand-alone treatment does not always completely prevent sprouting but, providing it is applied correctly, it gives good control in situations when potatoes are stored for short periods and the risk of sprouting is low.

In conclusion, while registered alternatives are becoming available, there are still industry concerns over efficacy, cost and potential taint issues (a key problem for end product flavor and consumer acceptability). Therefore, the quest for finding the ultimate CIPC replacement continues on.

Update: Following the publishing of this article, Potato Business was contacted by a Juno (Plant Protection) representative, which has been distributing spearmint oil in the UK for the potato market for the last 7 years. The company’s Director Nick Tapp clarified a few points. For example, he stated that Biox-M has no harvest interval, as crop treated with it may be removed from store immediately. The product is safe. However, there is an advisory retention period of up to 12 days in store to allow the naturally occurring odor to dissipate. It should be noted that it would seem wasteful to treat a crop immediately before removal for further processing.

According to Tapp  spearmint oil (marketed as Biox-M) is highly effective in the control of sprouting in potatoes in stores. Crops do not begin to sprout on removal from store following treatment. Moreover, Biox-M has worked well with all varieties treated to date. Normal variety dormancy appears unchanged (very dormant varieties take longer to recommence sprouting).

Lastly, Tapp says that Biox-M is approved for use on organic crops, and is suitable for use in multi-use stores. Crops treated with Biox-M have reduced weight loss in store and unlike CIPC, it leaves no residue in buildings and boxes.

A significant change in legislation

The EU legislation authorising the use of maleic hydrazide (MH) to inhibit potato sprout growth was revised and  re-approved for use in November 2017. Following the requests for re-authorisation by manufacturers, Article 29(6) of the EC Regulations 1107/2009, was revised and re-issued allowing the use of MH, but with one rather significant caveat which says:

“Member States shall ensure, where appropriate that the label of the treated crops included the indication that the crops were treated with maleic hydrazide and the accompanying instructions to avoid exposure of the livestock.”

As a professional working in the animal feed industry, this condition is cause for alarm in my opinion, as its implications are wide reaching. The new regulation on MH usage means the potatoes themselves, their peelings, any potato products derived from MH treated crops cannot be added to animal feed. This decision affects many areas of potato processing or co-processing, crop trade and potato derived former food stuffs, with MH exposed content.

Possible impact of a blanket ban

The impact of this decision on the UK animal feed sector is huge. The company I represent processes former foodstuffs (such as potato snacks, cakes, cereals) and re-purposes them into high quality animal feed. A high percentage of the former foodstuffs that we process includes potato content, including potato starch.

After discussions with industry colleagues on this new MH usage decision, we estimate that one million tonnes of MH treated potatoes or potato-based products, when removed from the food chain, could negatively impact ancillary feed businesses to the amount of approximately £130m per year. Of course, it won’t just be the UK that’s affected, because this regulation applies EU wide, therefore, the probable impact will be at least ten-fold if you include the EU countries.

There is no disguising that the effect on the UK animal feed industry is massive. Furthermore, if we consider that the UK government has recently unveiled its Waste and Resource Strategy , which tables food waste as a priority, the new decision on MH usage will be a backward step for us. This decision ultimately pushes 10 million tonnes of viable former foodstuffs below the line into the ‘waste’ category, rather than resource, across the EU.

We should move forward with process, not panic

To date, the EU has undertaken a data search on maleic hydrazide. It appears that their decision about MH is possibly flawed purely  due to a data gap.  This is  because of a carcinogenic metabolite of MH – 3-pyridazinone – which the EU thinks might be produced during farm livestock digestion.  There is no proof to either confirm or deny this  , resulting in the restriction being applied as a ‘blanket provision’ across all re-usable potato content food stuffs. Yet, it is a seemingly disproportionate reaction, as the perceived risk to livestock has not been demonstrated in the initial trials.

The MH manufacturers are undertaking the prescribed trial work to prove or disprove the alleged risk to livestock and work through a detailed risk assessment. However, there is a long wait, as this testing will not be complete until Q4 in 2019. After these results are released, the findings will need to be presented to EFSA (European Food Safety Authority). It could take another 12-18 months for EFSA to respond to the findings.

A great deal of economic damage could be wrought in the animal feed market in that two-year gap, not to mention elevated frustration if  it were proved to be an unnecessary ban. However, when all the trials are completed, the EU Commission and associated bodies may be proven correct in their original decision.

There must be proportionate response to unsubstantiated risk

Like our other EU counterparts,  the UK regulators are compelled to follow the EU Commission’s mandate on MH. However, the concurrent challenge in the UK/EU animal feed sector, is to galvanise on the issue and approach the EU Commission cohesively. This is how we ensure a complete risk management and chemical analysis investigation is carried out to obtain full and final evidence that this blanket ban is indeed necessary.

So, what are the possible negative impacts of the MH ban in animal feed? We can speculate that landfill usage will dramatically escalate to two years’ worth of material as farmers dispose of MH treated excess crops, that would have otherwise been used as fresh animal feed. Brands may suffer reputational damage. There’s the matter of how to fill the nutritional vacuum left by removing hitherto, viable, re-usable feed materials in the industry. Finally, the possible task of re-building the industry in two years’ time, if the MH decision proves to be ill-conceived and unnecessary.

It is not my intention to give the pessimist’s view, but hopefully be a voice of reason. We should always be risk averse, but our responses to risk should be proportionate to the possible danger, not creating another disaster. In the end, a solution that creates a crisis, has defeated its purpose. We should look to find a reasonable solution using solid measurable data.

SugaRich recovers surplus materials from food manufacturers, food distributors and food retailers and turn them into nutritionally balanced, high performance animal feed ingredients that are environmentally friendly, cost effective and increase productivity. 

With new technologies that can distribute and measure everything from water and chemicals usage to plant developing, tuber dimensions and throughput yields, drought is still a nuisance in Europe. Potato crops were largely affected by scorching drought in recent last year(s) and the phenomenon won’t stop. “Water scarcity, together with other climate change effects such as droughts, will have a direct impact on citizens, especially in highly urbanized or densely populated areas and the coast. Changes in water availability and quality will affect critical EU sectors such as tourism, agriculture, industry, energy, and transport. Environmental effects are expected to affect biodiversity, water quality, and aggravate the risk of forest fires, soil degradation and desertification,” the European Commission warns. 

The potato crop depends on a regular water supply to secure high quality yields, no matter if they come from providential rainfalls or man-made irrigations. Abiotic stress factors, such as drought, heat and salinity, have severe, adverse effects on growth and yield. The experts explain the phenomenon extensively and the farmer experiences first-hand side-effects such as lower yields, insufficient development of plants and tubers, etc.

Speaking about this, I want to highlight some disparities of potato farming worldwide:

– While European countries like Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands suffered from drought that crippled their potato production and quality over the last years, China has a clear strategy to make the spuds a national staple by 2020. Therefore, we should be able to draw the line and see how much it will be implemented by the end of next year; but the most interesting aspect is to see why China goes to this direction. The answer is very simple: potato requires 30% less water than China’s traditional staples of rice, wheat and maize, and it provides more calories and vitamins per acre.

– Developed countries, like those mentioned earlier, suffer from not implementing smart technologies such as micro irrigation systems, which are very efficient in potato crops and allow farmers to use the exactly quantity of water needed. Belgium is well-known for not benefiting from irrigation systems because of its difficult landscape and lack of water resources. But micro-irrigations are here to solve these kind of problems. When it comes to drip irrigation, for example, farmers can adjust the water used for each level of plant development and for the type of soil in their area. They can even dose water levels differently within the same field to closely match particularities in targeted soil sectors.

– Countries that are confronted with water scarcity issues are more likely to appreciate and implement this type of systems. For example, Israel’s efforts to combat desertification are often considered a unique, successful story. The country which succeeded to sustain its agricultural industry comprises almost entirely (93%) drylands. It is not surprising that so many companies in this country are involved in research in this sector.

– To use less water in agriculture is a quest for sustainability, ecology and food security and it is a concern not only for farmers and potato processors, but also for consumers, researchers and for authorities. Of course, the costs for implementing new technologies can be high for humble crops like potato. This is why I mentioned so many stakeholders who need to take action in this process, including the authorities who can develop projects in saving water and food security fields and help with legislative projects and funds. However, the consequences of not implementing them can be more costly!

More on micro-irrigation systems, sensors and artificial intelligence in potato farming will be available in our next issue of Potato Business Digital (Spring 2019), coming out soon!   

Maybe part of a human dream of controlling everything, AI brings to processors total control of the production, minimizes  loss and improves automatically the entire chain in a plant.

Speaking with people within the industry, I have found out that, for the moment, the level of AI implementation is quite low, maybe under 10%, according to their evaluation. As a challenge, of course, the costs are an aspect to mention, and especially as the AI is not a technology that improves the production and grows the profit at the moment of implementing. It requires time and analyses to see the results and consequently financial results.

Moreover, potato processors are still reticent to share the data with equipment producers, even though the informational interchange could bring benefits for both parts of the chain. To exemplify, for processors, it brings the proper information to implement a smoother and more efficient process. For equipment producers, sharing information brings important input from within the industry, the problems that processors are dealing with, but also the ideas and solutions for these problems.

But let’s move to another issue debated by everyone these days: the unemployment brought by technology. Professor Yuval Noah Harari says that people do not know how the work field will look like in 2050, but it is a certainty that  automatic learning and robotics will influence every sector. Of course, potato processing is included, I would add.

What is next? I would say that the succeeding question is how can we analyze the data obtained, what can we get out of it, who will be in charge of that and how many resources do we have for that. This is what big breakaway1 companies already do, as a recent McKinsey Analytics survey showed.

It analyzed 1,000 companies with more than USD1bn in revenue, spanning 13 sectors and 12 geographies. Here are some of the findings:

-Breakaway companies spend more than other organizations on analytics, and they plan to increase these investments further. Two-thirds of breakaway companies (versus only 5%) already spend more than 25% of their IT budgets on analytics, a category that can include a long list of analytics-related expenditures such as data, technology, analytics talent, and embedding analytics into business-process workflows.

-Breakaway organizations are 2.5 times more likely than their peers to report having a clear data strategy and twice as likely to report strong data-governance practices that allow them to identify and prioritize data.

-Breakaway companies are 2.5 times more likely than other respondents to have a clear methodology for developing analytics models, interpreting insights, and deploying the new capabilities that they build.

-Breakaway companies are 1.5 times more likely than their peers to have deep functional expertise in the areas of data science, data engineering, data architecture, and analytics transformation.

-Breakaway companies create collaborative cultures that foster innovation and propel analytics initiatives throughout the organization.

What is your opinion about artificial intelligence? How can it improve the potato processing chain? What are your biggest concerns related to it? I am looking forward to your thoughts at ioana.oancea@mediatrade.ro!

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1. Breakaway positioning is a marketing technique in which customers recognize the product based on its features such as design, functionality, appearance, feel, luxury, distribution channel, pricing, or features. This type of marketing technique helps the brand to create its own image, or niche, which at times leads to impulsive buying. A breakaway campaign stands out, as it is able to connect with the consumer at a different level. The brands which follow breakaway strategy always try and maintain their niche. They create their own image in the mind of consumers which can’t be associated with any other brand. 

This makes me think that most people are just like me and my close ones: whatever new aromas can be found on the savory snack aisle, it is good to go back to the classics from time to time, and salt chips are an all-time classic.

However, researchers have been taking a closer look at salt recently. Besides known concerns that high salt intake can increase the risk of heart attack, stroke, heart failure, and dying from other heart-related causes, scientists have linked salt excess to obesity, even independent of calorie consumption. A study conducted at Deakin University’s Center for Physical Activity and Nutrition Research (C-PAN), Australia, showed that consuming salty, fatty foods is linked to overeating and becoming overweight, even more than when choosing sweet and fatty foods.

The American Heart Association recommends no more than 2,300 milligrams (mgs) a day for an adult. For comparison, 100 grams of regular potato chips contain 525mgs of sodium, actually almost a quarter of the total daily intake.

However, it is quite interesting that trends such as “healthy” or “premiumization” have succeeded to impact even this most classic flavor ever: “salt”. Nowadays, most companies don’t produce only the simplest formula, but the shelves are full of “Himalayan salt”, “Himalayan pink salt”, “Sea salt”, “Sea salt & pepper”, “Simply salted”, etc. This way, the producers position a simple product in categories that are seen as healthier, because Himalayan or sea salt must be healthy, aren’t they? And because they are not just regular types of salt (and however not cheap kinds) they are also premium, special and made for a special type of consumer, who is actually “someone”.

This is a nice way to appease the general health concern regarding the salt intake and especially of sodium intake. Himalayan salt now has the reputation of containing more calcium, potassium, magnesium and iron, but less sodium than processed table salt. Nevertheless, the amounts of these minerals in pink Himalayan salt are quite small, yet the sales succeed worldwide.

The boundaries between indulgence and healthy habits seem to be blurry for consumers. By comparison, products labeled as unsalted or with “reduced amount of salt” are lagging behind new premium salt options.

Not according to the European Union and many food scientists. Acrylamide, says the EU, is ‘a carcinogenic substance that forms from naturally present free asparagine (amino acid) and sugars during high temperature processing, such as frying, particularly in potato-based products’.

And this, obviously, would be bad news for the global potato industry, affecting both growers and processors.

This follows some research in 2002 which showed a disposition towards cancer after consuming fried potato products.

But Emma Shields, at charity Cancer Research UK, says: “Although evidence from animal studies has shown that acrylamide in food could be linked to cancer, this link isn’t clear and consistent in humans.”

However, prevention is better than cure, say many, and the fried slices of potato seemed endangered.

However, the traditional or true Belgian offering (which dates back to the 19th century) is done by double frying potato chips in beef or horse fat to achieve the ideal combination of a succulent center and crispy exterior. Shared with a good beer, this is about as traditional as it gets in Belgium.

So, Ben Weyts, the country’s tourism minister, said in a letter to the EU that ‘our fries owe their flavor to the craftsmanship of our chippies, who fry chips raw and then fry them a second time. I understand that outside our country they have different cultures. But we have our own cultural tradition’. It would be a shame for the EU to prohibit this, he added.

An EU commission spokesman said, in response, that their proposal was merely to recommend the blanching of potatoes rather than enforce a ban.  “The commission has no intention whatsoever to ban Belgian frites or any other frites for that matter,” he stressed.

And, in July this year, members of the European Commission voted in favor of a new (less strict) regulation that requires food business operators to apply ‘mandatory measures to reduce the presence of acrylamide’, proportionate to the size and nature of their establishment.

That, in turn, is good news for growers and processors, especially those involved in the bintje variety which is the most popular for Belgium’s famous offering.

That means my next Belgian visit can include crisp frieten and some mussels as a centuries old tradition is allowed to continue. Oh, and a visit to the Frietmusuem in Bruges is well worth the time…

The good news is that food processors are extremely interested in the newly developed starch types and applications, as well as in the increasing demand for such products.

For example, a report by Technavio shows that the CAGR for the global potato processed market for potato starch is to rise with 4.05%, between 2016 and 2021.

On the other hand, the International Potato Center (CIP) says it is likely that less than 50% of potatoes grown worldwide are consumed fresh. The rest are processed into potato food products and food ingredients, for animal feeding, re-used as seed tubers or processed into starch for industry and other uses.

Nowadays, opportunities for potato starch are significant, as the industrial global starch market is projected to reach 113.9 MT and USD106.64bn in terms of value by 2022, according to the report “Industrial Starch Market – Global Forecast to 2022”, recently published by MarketsandMarkets.

One of the drivers of starch growth is the rise of the industrial starch market in the Asia-Pacific region, especially in China and India. The consumption of starch in China accounts for nearly half of the region’s starch consumption, with the growing demand for European-style baked goods.

Furthermore, potato starch applications for the food industry have developed in a way that was almost inconceivable ten or twenty years ago – from bakery and confectionery industry to soups and sauces, ready meals, dairy products and other, a lot of processed foods contain starch.

Moreover, the potato derivate brings benefits difficult to reach in other ways – fat reduction, textures and flavors enhancement, gluten elimination, etc.

Potato starch is gluten free and is very useful for people with gluten intolerance or wheat sensitivity. It also aids in lowering plasma cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations, while at the same time it increases satiety, and even reduces fat storage.

There is a growing need for starch and starch derivatives, it seems, and Grand View Research, a US-based company, says an increasing demand for natural sweeteners in food processing and beverages industries is expected to drive the global starch derivatives globally.

These are few of the reasons for which we decided to cover the topic of potato starch in a comprehensive way in future articles and, of course, we are waiting for your comments and suggestions at ioana.oancea@mediatrade.ro and dan.orehov@cmgromania.ro!

But hang on, scream the health fanatics. What you are eating is not good for you. They are packed with sodium, have more acrylamide than French fries and are almost addictive. And we all know that anything addictive is bad for us and the health conscious consumer might be thinking that the humble chip is a bad thing.

With its basic ingredients of potatoes, oil and salt, the humble chip does perhaps sound a tad unhealthy. But are they really?

We all are aware of the fact that vegetables are healthy – and the potato has more than its fair share of potassium even in chip form. A 100g serving has 1,196mg of potassium- more than a similarly sized banana and a good part of your daily recommended value of 3,500mg.

Then there’s the oil and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Vegetable oil contains linolic acid, an omega-6 fatty acid, which is an important part of a healthy diet according to a recent study by the University of Missouri and University of Illinois.

Funnily enough, salt is not the huge ‘evil’ it is made out to be either. We all need sodium for many basic processes essential to life. It helps your muscles function, allows your nerves to send impulses throughout your body and helps regulate the balance of fluids in all of your tissues.

The trouble is, we eat too much sodium. But that is not only down to the chips (hmm, these sweet chilli chips in the next packet are good) as health authorities tell us all processed foods contain sodium…

But, it appears, the health conscious consumers are gaining ground. Or are they?

Snacks play a critical role in the American diet, says research company Nielsen, and they form a major cog in the retail landscape, as the total salty snack category accounted for more than USD27.5bn in sales the year ending February 2017.

But, adds Nielsen, despite consumers’ drive to more healthy lifestyles, snacking trends appear to be shifting away from snack bars, cereal snacks and dried fruits with the meat snack category showing a growth of more than 7% over the past four years.

So, I need to ask the question again, is the potato chip losing out to the health conscious consumer? Well, they are big in Japan…

A report earlier this month showed that Japan’s potato chip shortage is rapidly developing into a crisis, with consumers rushing to stock up on what little is left in supermarkets and manufacturers struggling to find fresh supplies.

The dwindling stocks at snack makers are the immediate cause following a poor harvest of autumn potatoes in Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido. Spring potatoes are not due to arrive until late May.

But the global health-conscious consumer is gaining some ground as the market now offers baked instead of fried chips as well as lower fat baked and popped varieties, not to mention healthy-sounding fruit and vegetable crisps.

But, says the UK’s Daily Mail, while vegetable crisps might sound like a more nutritious choice, we would be consuming more sugar by eating parsnip, sweet potato and beetroot snacks.

And popped crisps – instead of frying potatoes in oil, they’re made by air-popping them and that lowers the calorie and fat content – still have 101 calories and 3.2g fat. But snackers will not benefit from a reduced salt content as these have around the same as the traditional ready salted variety – but come in a smaller bag.

A tough call but I reckon if I limit my intake to just two packs of chips a day I will be OK. Pass me the thyme and roast chicken ones. Oh, I have had my two already…

The potato’s markets, research and popularity transcends international boundaries and political persuasions.

Or do they? The world is wondering what effect the United Kingdom’s ‘Brexit’ vote will have on Europe and even wider afield. It could change the way we farm, the way imports and exports in the European community work. It could see the UK forging trade agreements with other countries besides or in place of those in the European Union. Or, some say, it could even see other countries leaving the European Union.

Then there’s the current situation in the United States where Donald Trump has gone from TV reality star and billionaire who people poked fun at to President of one of the world’s most powerful nations.

His penchant for issuing ‘executive orders’ without consulting Congress or his other cohorts could be a source of worry for many as no-one seems to be sure exactly how he will behave in the coming weeks and months. Already, it appears, dealings with Mexico will be virtually non-existent – unless Trump uses Mexican laborers to build his wall.

Could his decisions impact on the potato market?

Well, it would not be the first time.  Less than 17 years ago the States banned the import of potatoes from Canada’s Prince Edward Island, citing concern about a fungal disease called Potato Wart. It is harmless to humans but causes deformities that make the potatoes impossible to sell.

It was found in a single field in Prince Edward Island, and PEI Agricultural Minister Mitch Murphy suggested at the time that closing the border was an over-reaction and was more political and market related than a concern about Potato Wart as markets were generally sluggish at the time.

But now in 2017 there is also concern over rising nationalism with others inclined to follow Trump’s ‘America first’ which could see nations like Germany, The Netherlands and others following suit.

Political commentator George Friedman wrote in May last year that the re-emergence of the nation state (which is what nationalism is all about) is the new primary vehicle of political life with the result that multinational organizations like the EU and multi-lateral trade treaties were being challenged as they are not seen as being in  the national interest.

Markets around the world, from financial to agricultural, must be watching political development with trepidation and some concern as new political leaders in France, Germany, Holland and other countries can bring about major changes and shifts in both internal and external policies.

We are living in interesting times, indeed, and already there have been moves that are different.  This month the Brazilian government will impose anti-dumping duties on frozen potato products imported from Europe, following an investigation started in 2015 after a complaint from Brazilian processor Bem do Brasil.

Spare a thought, too, for the people at the other end of the chain – the farmer and the processor.  They might have contracts in place now but for how much longer?

Current trends show that frozen potato exports from major players like Belgium, Holland and the United States are up over the previous three years. Many are hoping that trend will continue. Time and politics will tell…

As far back as the mid-1800s crop failures and fungal problems were noted. Look at the Great Irish Famine of 1845 which spread to parts of Europe and led to the death of more than one million people.

In more recent times, the 2012 and 2013 harvests were bad. The UK’s Guardian newspaper, in 2012, wrote: “Food prices are set to rise after a summer of wet weather has hit harvests. The global price of wheat has risen by 30% over the last year. Potato harvests are down by half in some areas.”

The UK’s Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board’s Market Intelligence report showed that the 2012 harvest was 24% down on the previous year due to weather conditions and the lowest since the major drought of 1976. Production in the Netherlands and Belgium was also bad that year, with North-Western Europe reflecting a 17% production drop.

And, as we all know, when supply diminishes, demand goes up, prices go up (at retail, not always wholesale) and almost everyone suffers in one way or another.

Coping with this is a problem that farmers, processors, and their organizations need to face up to. While most processors have contracts in place, they are not as affected by adverse weather conditions in terms of business – unless the harvest and quality is way below expectation.

And this can depend on how it is done. Look at Belgapom – the association for the Belgian potato trade and processing industry. Romain Cools, Secretary General for the association, has a positive outlook and says that a co-operative approach is beneficial for all.

“Years like this one offer opportunities for long-term relationships between the operators in the potato value chain,” he said recently, adding that the EU and Belgium, more particularly, are well prepared to take up the challenges facing the industry, taking in consideration the investments in sustainable growth and quality policy and the fact that the processing industry is continuously extending its capacity.

He said a strong potato chain and a competitive logistical system will bring about a successful future, but pointed out that contracts made need to be fulfilled. He warned that a shortage of potatoes in the EU has also affected the exports of fresh potatoes from the UK to Belgium.

Interestingly, Andersons Farm Business Consultants director Jay Wootton says an ‘air of optimism’ could see a larger area of potatoes grown in the UK this year adding that this could reverse the better balance in the market ­– the low yields in Europe must not be forgotten as a key driver of UK market strength.

“For many, however, the volatility of the free-buy/packing market is unlikely to be relevant. For contracted growers who, weather permitting, largely know their likely income around planting time, it is probably a challenge to be profitable enough to cover the continuing reinvestment required to sustain most large-scale operations.”

Mintec says the EU yields for 2016/17 have been estimated at 45.1 tonnes/ha, a decline of 6% compared to last year’s crop and Ryan Larsen, an extension farm management specialist at UtahStateUniversity, predicts potatoes will realize higher prices in the 2016-17 marketing year.

As Cools said, usually a year with higher prices offers more possibilities for the potato trade, but this year trade has also suffered from low yields to deliver the contracted goods.

The good news he says, and I agree, is that the global market is driven by demand, and the demand for processed products all over the world is high.

It appears 2017 will be an interesting year …