European frozen fry exports posted a modest gain in April, marking the second consecutive month of volume recovery after a weak start to the year. However, persistent price erosion, coupled with subdued demand from key global markets, continues to cast uncertainty over the sector’s trajectory.

According to official trade data, the EU‑5 countries (Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Germany and Poland) exported 516,121 tonnes of frozen fries in April, an increase of 1.2% (6,493 tonnes) over March. The previous month had already registered improvement compared to January and February, suggesting a possible bottoming out of the recent export decline.

Cumulative exports for the January–April period reached 1.61 million tonnes, reflecting a significant shortfall against previous years. The brunt of the decline has been borne by Belgium and the Netherlands, though April saw early signs of a turnaround—particularly in Dutch volumes.

Dutch Volumes Recover, Price Premium Maintained

After four consecutive months of decline, the Netherlands recorded a 5% rise in April exports, amounting to 7,735 tonnes. Belgian exports remained stable with a modest gain of 400 tonnes, while France recorded a loss of 1,380 tonnes. Exports from Germany and Poland were virtually unchanged.

Despite this tentative recovery, market pricing remains under intense pressure. Belgium continues to offer the lowest average export price, which dropped to €1,180 per tonne in April—down €15 from the previous month and the lowest level recorded since October 2022. At current exchange rates for April (€1 ≈ $1.1225), that equates to approximately $1,326 per tonne.

The Netherlands and France reported higher average prices of €1,370 per tonne in April (~$1,538/t), with France showing a temporary 14% month-on-month increase. However, preliminary figures for May indicate that French average export prices fell back to around €1,200 per tonne (~$1,347/t), suggesting the April uptick may have been short-lived.

Interestingly, the Netherlands has managed to sustain higher average prices despite elevated raw material costs. Dutch processors typically source potatoes through fixed contracts, providing a buffer against short-term market volatility. Belgian processors, in contrast, rely more heavily on the spot market and have thus been able to take advantage of falling free-market prices.

The Dutch price premium, far from undermining competitiveness, appears to reflect sustained demand for higher-quality and more premium frozen fry products, setting them apart from more standardised offerings in the marketplace.

Global Demand Remains Weak

Demand contraction across multiple export destinations continues to weigh on the European frozen fry sector. The United Kingdom remains the largest non-EU market, but imports from the EU‑5 fell 10.6% in the first four months of the year, down to 228,472 tonnes.

Other core markets have shown similar trends. Spain’s imports dropped 28% to 29,236 tonnes, while the United States—Europe’s third-largest overseas market—reduced its intake by 9%.

One of the more striking shifts is evident in Saudi Arabia, which slashed its imports of European fries by 41%, equivalent to approximately 43,000 tonnes. The Gulf country has increasingly turned to Asian suppliers, pointing to a rebalancing in global procurement patterns amid tighter budgets, logistical adjustments, and shifting trade alliances.

Outlook: Stabilisation or Plateau?

While the April export data signals a fragile rebound, it is too early to declare a sustained recovery. Prices remain under pressure, volumes are still trailing historic levels, and demand from key markets continues to retreat.

Whether the recent gains in Dutch exports and modest price resilience in select countries mark the beginning of a longer-term stabilisation—or merely a plateau before further corrections—will depend on harvest developments, pricing of raw materials, and buyer confidence across global markets.

As the European frozen fry industry enters the second half of 2025, it must contend not only with internal price structures and contract dynamics, but also with increasingly complex shifts in global demand and competition.