Menu Penetration for French Fries is Expected to Grow to a Record 60.9% by 2028

Over the past ten years, demand for potatoes – especially frozen potatoes – has increased remarkably. The demand trend is not going away, even though the market may be entering a new normal. In the U.S., reported potato production and sales have increased by 16% since 2014 and 6% since 2019.
“This reflects an undeniable change in consumer behavior that has been positive toward potatoes and potato products resulting in remarkable opportunities for growers, processors, importers, and others,” Potatoes USA CEO, Blair Richardson, mentioned in a letter officially released.
To start with foodservice, French fries were on 57.2% of American restaurant menus in 2014. That percentage increased to 59.6% in 2024. The U.S. is still close to the historic menu penetration rate, although it is slightly lower than the peak of 60.0% in 2021.
“Of course, menu penetration does not measure volume, but it is a key indicator in food service for the desirability of a category. Looking forward, the future projections are strong. Menu penetration for fries is expected to grow to a record 60.9% by 2028, which should support longer-term demand,” he added.
To start with food service, fries were on 57.2% of American restaurant menus in 2014. That percentage increased to 59.6% in 2024. The U.S. is still close to the historic menu penetration rate, although it is slightly lower than the peak of 60.0% in 2021.
Although this is good, market experts say that they need to acknowledge that as traffic slowed in 2023 and early 2024, customers started to feel the effects of inflation in the food service industry. This was mostly due to lower personal budgets and significantly higher restaurant prices. Technomic reports that for the second consecutive year, food service menu prices increased by more than 7% in 2023, maintaining their historically high levels. Again, over half of restaurants stated they anticipated another price hike in the future, and 45% of restaurants had raised menu pricing once again by the end of Q1 2024.
“These cost increases were limiting consumer traffic. When Technomic asked consumers why they were eating out less at restaurants, more than three-quarters said, ‘Prices are too high.’ Sixty percent reported ‘my budget for ordering food service has decreased’,” Richardson declared.
The Foodservice Industry Started to Answer Consumers’ Calls for Relief
Although short-term demand is still being impacted by general economic concerns, experts agree, there are indications that this could soon improve and, in certain cases, may have already started to do so. Earlier this year, the foodservice sector began responding to consumer requests for assistance. Value menus have been developed by Taco Bell, McDonald’s, and Arby’s to increase customer traffic. The USD5 McDonald’s lunch deal will be available through December. There have been some encouraging reports this summer, and as the programs have had time to show effects, we hope to see more this fall.
As experts look to 2025, Technomic estimates growth in both limited-service and full-service restaurants where the majority of frozen potato sales are found. “Expect burgers to recover for sure, and the chicken players will continue to show strong growth. These are both good for fries,” Technomic said.
Foodservice operators still appreciate potatoes’ adaptability, affordability, and customer preference. Promotions are meant to increase visitation, and even while price shocks have had a short-term negative effect, menu penetration for fries is still close to historic highs.
USD Sales From July 2023-June 2024 Increased for All Potato Types With Exceptions
When it comes to retail, USD sales climbed for all potato types between July 2023 and June 2024, except fresh. The largest rise was observed in frozen potatoes (+14.6%). For that time frame, volume sales were stable, and sales of frozen potatoes were 0.02% lower than the previous year. This is a remarkable retail achievement, especially in light of the recent significant price hikes for frozen goods. Since July 2023, total retail sales have increased by almost 10% over the fiscal year 2019 and are only 4.5% behind the pandemic pantry-loading peak of the fiscal year 2020.
“This further shows us that the U.S. potato market is strong. It’s so strong that international companies are in the early process of building new processing capacity in the U.S. This includes companies from Belgium, France, and India that we know of today. The increased processing capacity should rebalance imports over time, which have more than doubled over the past decade while U.S. consumption outpaced supplies – especially for many frozen products. In the future, U.S. farmers should have more opportunities to use American-grown potatoes to help meet the demand these companies previously filled with potatoes from other parts of the world,” the CEO declared.
Examining foreign markets is also worthwhile, especially those in Mexico. The U.S. potato sector has been significantly impacted by the ability to send fresh potatoes to markets across Mexico, and it also opens up new potential for shippers and growers that weren’t previously possible. For the second consecutive year, Mexico was the top export destination for U.S. potatoes from July 2023 to June 2024. The Potatoes USA experts anticipate that consumer demand will only grow, opening up new markets for both Mexican and U.S. potato producers.
“While we see more competitors globally, we also believe global demand for potatoes and potato products is expected to expand over the coming decade. The interest in China, India, and Turkey to produce more frozen products will very likely disrupt some regional markets in the coming years. Still, we are hopeful greater access to supplies will (over time) also create more demand in these markets where most potatoes are still marketed in a fresh format,” Richardson explained.
While the growth rate may have slowed in some areas over the past year, the category is still growing and riding a historical peak with new demand records again in 2024.