In 2024, 24.7m tons of potatoes were harvested from the NEPG seedes areas (EU-04, which includes Belgium, Germany, France, and the Netherlands), representing a 6.9% increase over the 2023 liftings.

The market remains active despite the rise in supply. Beginning in early February 2024, farmer prices increased from 12,50 EUR/100 kg in October and November to 30,00 EUR/100 kg.

“The rapid rise since the beginning of January is rather surprising. Stock assessments over the coming months, as well as the timing and conditions of spring planting, will be of prime importance for price trends this season,” according to the latest NEPG experts’ analysis.

2025: NEPG Analysts Predict an Increase of Potato-seeded Areas

Given a thriving market and limited alternatives, it appears quite probable that potato farmers will plant more potatoes this spring than they did the previous one.

“Farmers must seriously consider the annual downward trend in yields, which translates into increased production costs per hectare. But a larger area means higher risks of a good global production if we plant early and have a normal growing season,” NEPG experts added.

Stable Contract Prices and More Expensive Production Costs

Although the price of potato seeds is generally lower than it was last spring (except for Innovator-type varieties), it has increased by 10 to 15% when compared to 2023 costs. Risks are becoming increasingly significant for farmers, and production costs have somewhat increased.

“Some processors use dissuasive tariffs to encourage growers to limit soil tare,” NEPG representatives also mentioned.

Contracts are largely steady during the storing season in the NEPG zone. Free buy prices for potato processing will determine future developments and adjustments.

Uncertain World Markets and Challenges for Export

The expansion of Chinese and Indian fry exports, stricter environmental regulations in the EU, and increased risks and expenses following U.S. presidential choices, all have an impact on the NEPG industry.

Future unexpected choices by the next U.S. administration could hurt EU-04 exports of frozen potato products. The expanding alternative fry exporters from China, India, Egypt, Argentina, and Turkey must also be taken into consideration by the European potato industry.

In that period, the effects of climate change, stricter laws, and regulations regarding the use of pesticides, an increase in soil-borne diseases like Stolbur, nematodes, wireworms, and edible nutsedge, as well as additional issues and regulations related to nitrogen leaks in groundwater, made potato production more risky and technically challenging. To ensure high quality for the entire crop, effective instruments are essential.

Growers need to understand that they are taking risks by increasing their potato hectarage, given the likely larger potato area and the unclear export markets for the EU-04.

“Producers must follow processing needs and not precede them,” the NEPG potato experts concluded.