On May 1, 2023, total Canadian potato storage holdings were greater than the three-year average but were down 1.2% from 2022 levels for the same period.

As the experts look at the disappearance numbers by sector, where they witnessed a decline in movement in the fresh potato sector as compared to movement in April of last year, it becomes clear that fresh shippers in both Canada and the U.S. noticed a slowdown in sales after the Easter break in April.

A warmer and drier spring with producers pulling seed earlier, because they are on schedule for planting this year compared to last, is most likely the cause of the larger shipments that were in processing (9% up over April 2022) and seed at 75.2% up over April of last year.

“In total, growers shipped 716,800 tons of potatoes from storage in April 2023, an increase over March shipments of 649,600 tons and 16.7% higher than in April 2022 with the bulk of this increase coming out of the seed sector. In Fresh many benefited from good demand in April leading up to Easter but saw a slight decline the last two weeks of April, with shipments for the month overall down compared to March for all provinces except New Brunswick, Ontario, and Alberta. Other than Quebec and Manitoba, all provinces showed decreased movement of potatoes in the processing sector as well and all showed moderate to good movement of seed as growers prepared for planting, with a particularly large movement of seed out of Alberta,” according to a recent UPGC report.

Fresh Potato Stocks are Downhill Too. Processing Slightly Up

Fresh potato inventories were at 319,200 tons as of May 1, 2023, down 9.8% overall from the previous year but still significantly higher than the three-year average. Fresh potato shipments decreased by 52,304 tons (27.2%) from March to April, or 140,000 tons, as several regions experienced a slowdown following the Easter break in early April.

“When compared to April of last year shipments appear down 0.4%, however adjusting for one fewer working days in April in 2023 shipments were slightly higher. Based on stocks reported in the first holding report published in December, we estimate approximately 73% of the crop has been shipped to date and if this rate continues fresh stocks could potentially be done in July, we will continue to keep an eye on the transition. Planting has begun in all provinces, with some further along than others, but at a much better pace for BC, Manitoba, and New Brunswick when compared to the cold and rainy spring of last year. Current shipping pace along with weather through May and June will be important factors for the transition from old crop to new crop,” the UPGC experts say.

The amount of potatoes in storage for the processing industry is higher this year than it was last, but Canada did start the season with a greater harvest. Based on average monthly exports from December through April, shipments have exceeded last year’s shipments by 5.7%. A total of 2.02m tons have been exported during that time, which is 106,400 tons more than during the same period last year.

“Demand from processors, impacted by the continued increase in global demand for frozen fries as well as catching up from shortages last summer, is keeping the movement strong in this sector. At the current average pace of shipments, we would estimate stocks to be completely moved over the next 3 months, taking the sector into August or longer, depending on how the processors pull out of storage. The rate of shipments does vary between provinces when comparing April to March, with PEI, New Brunswick, Ontario, and Alberta down for April but still well in line with traditional levels. Manitoba shipments were higher, compared to previous years, and Quebec had a record movement of processing potatoes in April. Contract negotiations have been completed in all provinces except Manitoba who are still in talks,” the report reveals.

Seed Inventory Also Negative

At 313,600 tons as of May 1, 2023, the seed stockpile was just 6,160 tons lower than it was at this time last year, but it was still higher than the three-year average. However, the shipping pace is up 9,912 tons per month on average for December through April of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, with 156,800 tons being moved in April alone, a 75% increase over April 2021. This season did begin with about 44,800 tons more in storage (based on December published numbers).

“This is most likely related to the very cold and wet spring last year, including flooding in Manitoba and serious rains in BC, that caused significant delays in planting and hence the movement of seed. Ontario shipments of seed were lower in April compared to March however all other provinces saw an increase in movement, particularly out of Alberta, as well as Quebec which doubled their shipments this month compared to March. The bulk of the seed storage left is in New Brunswick and Manitoba, however, both provinces report that they will see the majority of this stock move in May as planting gets underway in earnest,” the UPGC experts summed up.