In 2024, fertilizer consumption will still rise, albeit more slowly. Farmers are seeing a return to pre-Ukraine conflict operating expenses.

The price of commodities is declining, nevertheless. As a result, farmers are becoming less eager to make additional investments in their fields and their operating margins are declining, with operating margins dropping below the average observed between 2021 and 2023.

“In this scenario, certain fertilizers, such as phosphates, are particularly vulnerable to the decline in demand. […] We expect that fertilizer use will continue to grow in 2024, albeit at a slower rate than previously expected in our last report at the end of 2023. Geopolitical factors, among others, may pose additional challenges along the way,” Bruno Fonseca, Senior Analyst, Farm Inputs, Raboresearch, concluded.