According to recent UPGC perspectives on potato supply (2023-2024), there is an estimated 36,000 hectares were planted in Canada to produce fresh potatoes, yielding an estimated 1.65m tons of potatoes that could be sold fresh.

Even when hectarage stays constant, the UPGC experts claim that the U.S. continues to see a trend that is shifting from red to yellow, which improves yields and increases production.

“With the surplus in the U.S., prices have dropped significantly […], however, they have been holding well so far in Canada, although there have been more recent reports of continued downward pressure,” the UPGC report reveals.

After two years of shortages, Idaho is attempting to make up for lost table market sales, particularly for russets. Since September, the UPGC experts have witnessed extremely aggressive pricing. Exports from Canada to the U.S. may decline from the previous year as a result of these exceptionally low prices in the Pacific Northwest.

“We continue to monitor surplus potatoes in the processing sector that could be dumped into the fresh sector, there have not yet been any significant reports of this type of movement however it is early in the marketing year,” the experts added.

The Processing Potatoes Sector: ‘There are large surpluses in the U.S.’

In the U.S., there is a significant excess of processing potatoes, particularly russets from the Pacific Northwest. In response to shortages during the previous two years, processors over-contracted acres and disposed of excess potatoes under contract, especially in Manitoba and Alberta.

“There is continued expansion in the sector: Idaho (Lamb Weston, American Falls), Washington (Simplot, Moses Lake), Oregon (Simplot, Kraft/Heinz plant in Ontario, not the province but in the state of Oregon) Alberta (McCain, Coaldale). However, the earliest will be only in the spring of 2024 in Idaho, not soon enough to take much of this surplus,” the UPGC analysts wrote.

Due to the heavy rains experienced during the growing season – and in certain places even until harvest – hollow heart and rot have been seen in russets in Eastern Canada and Maine. While growers have made an effort to keep low-lying sections in the fields, issues with long-term storage might still exist. In eastern Canada, UPGC does anticipate a limited supply of processing potatoes this year.

“The U.S. potato processors may try to regain market share thanks to the additional supply available and the difficulties of the European harvest, as global demand continues unabated. Contract negotiations have begun in Washington and are very positive to date,” the experts mentioned.

European Potato Growers Delayed Harvest to Bolster Yields

With record-breaking rains and flooding, Europe faces a severe potato supply situation, making this year’s harvest one of the hardest on record. Due to delayed plantings at the beginning of the season, many growers had postponed harvest in an attempt to increase yields, which meant that a larger percentage of the crop was still in the ground when bad weather started. Just before the end of November, Belgium, the Netherlands, Ireland, and the UK continue to project that 20–30% of their crops will be harvested.

“Ukraine prices are on the rise, however, there is a high percentage of substandard products in the current season, which is not suitable for long-term storage,” the UPGC analysis continues.

Many in the main potato-processing-producing countries have reconciled themselves to another year of scarce supply and rising costs, with up to 20% of the crop remaining in extremely damp ground and more rain predicted. Maybe market share from European processors can be captured by the US and Canada together.