Valuable data from a study commissioned and launched in 2022 reveals that the overall increase in potato consumption is driven by population growth (+12% over the period studied in trend), which ensures a “mechanical” increase in demand for potatoes (fresh and processed combined), as well as changes in eating habits: the consumption of processed foods “pulls” total consumption.

The study, commissioned by FranceAgriMer, le Groupement Interprofessionnel pour la valorization de la Pomme de Terre (GIPT), le Comité National Interprofessionnel de la Pomme de Terre (CNIPT), and l’Union Nationale des Producteurs de Pommes de Terre (UNPT) and carried out by the Ceresco, reflects the balance sheet of total potato consumption and processed consumption in 2030 according to the scenarios studied (trend + 2 variants).

The trend scenario (1) predicts a growth of +70% in processed consumption over the period; i.e. a CAGR2 of +6% and a differential of around 45m tonnes to be produced, all intended for processing. The slowdown scenario (3) predicts growth of +17%, i.e. a CAGR of +2% and a differential of nearly 15m tonnes to be produced. In any case, the penetration of processed products is increasing.

“At the level of consumption per capita, the results are more contrasted: Per person, processed consumption increases from 27% to 39% of total consumption, with a replacement phenomenon since fresh consumption decreases (from 24 to 21 in trend, to 22 in scenario 3). The current change in eating habits continues to produce its effects. In the context of degraded growth, the observation is the same but growth is lower; For total consumption per capita, the evolution would be slightly positive (contrary to past trends) or would continue to decrease (with population growth higher than consumption growth),” the study unfolds.

Production that Should Adapt to Consumption

Experts agree that the potato seeding area is tending to stagnate after a period of decline. The increase in production, driven by consumption, is, therefore, based on improving yields. Depending on the scenario, it will be a question of producing between +15m and +45m tonnes, depending on global economic growth.

“With a yield of 24 t/ha, a level which should be reached in 2030 in the trend scenario, the 45m tonnes of the trend scenario can be achieved without increasing areas, subject to a reasonable reduction in losses at the global level which would allow more production to be devoted to human consumption (from 67 to 70%). The 15m tonnes of the slowdown scenario have been largely reached to the point of being in a situation of quasi overproduction which could lead to price drops or even a contraction of areas,” the study brings out.

On the other hand, by modeling a resurgence of climatic hazards (scenario 2), the experts obtained a stagnation of yields at the global level at 21.5 t/ha (an unprecedented situation to date). In this context, an increase in surface areas will be necessary to cover the needs, of the order of 2m additional hectares.

“These projections show that the balance between production and consumption is unstable, alternating between tensions and overproduction depending on economic and climatic conditions. The mismatches can be geographical (available areas far from consumption areas, for example) or economic (with significant price variations depending on the intensity of demand),” the study reflects.

OECD countries are not those with the greatest room for maneuver, whether in terms of available areas or yields. The countries with the greatest influence on the variation in global production come from four groups: the “potato economy” countries in decline: -13m to -16m tons; “Competitor” countries (e.g. China, India, Bangladesh): +14m to +35m tonnes; “Emerging” countries: +7m to + 9m tonnes; “Potato tradition” countries: +5 to +8m tonnes.

Projections to 2030

The study’s objective is to assess the trends and market prospects for fresh and processed potatoes up to 2030 so the French sectors can prepare for them. It is a continuation of a study conducted in 2015, without applying a strictly comparable methodology. The research is organized in two phases: a global retrospective analysis, qualitative insights for 23 countries, and the development of scenarios and projections for 2030.

In this respect, the experts constructed a trend scenario based on developments over the last 10 years with two variants. The first variant, “growth and hazards”, simulates an increase in climatic hazards (impacting production) and boosts potato consumption.

The second, “slowdown,” simulates a slowdown in global GDP growth that affects trade and consumption of potatoes (fresh and processed).

The developments were calculated country by country, the trend scenario was therefore made up of the sum of these independent developments.

To compensate for the lack of data for certain countries (in particular on the consumption of processed products), a typology has been put in place.

It groups countries according to their “behavior” towards potatoes rather than following strictly geographical criteria. For example, South America no longer appears as a homogeneous group but, on the contrary, with fairly contrasting habits depending on the countries studied.