NEPG: There are About 1,4 Mt of Potato Still in the Fields
A significant quantity of potatoes in the EU-4 producing countries has not yet been harvested as a result of the heavy rainfall. Too little time was spent lifting the potatoes to allow for proper storage. Contracts for the forthcoming season must account for increased costs and greater risks. For spring 2024, seed supply is a problem and a cause for concern.
“After a moderate summer, potato yields were generally good. An average yield of 45,8 t/ha was achieved in the EU-4. This is an increase of 6,3 % compared with last year. Combined with increased hectarage, total production in the EU-4 is estimated at 23,6m tonnes (22,9 Mt in 2021, a somewhat comparable year). For now, around 22,2 Mt appears to have been harvested. So there are about 1,4 Mt in the fields. NEPG does not speculate on how much will still be harvested, but part of the crop is lost for good,” according to a recent NEPG press release.
Harvest operations were halted after just three weeks due to unfavorable weather in October. Up to 250 mm of rain was reported in certain areas by the middle of November, which caused flooding. The worst hit areas were coastal Holland, western Belgium, and northern France. The majority of the regions that still need to be harvested are in Belgium (11%) and Holland (15%). Harvesting, cleaning, drying, and storage come at a significant expense.
“2023 reminds us that potato production is getting more difficult, risky, expensive, and stressful. The weather in late spring and early summer (i.e. dry and hot) was typically one of “climate change”. The abundant rains during late summer and autumn again showed typically what weather patterns are becoming. Contracts for the upcoming season have to take these risks into account,” the NEPG experts added.
Concerned about their unharvested land are the spud growers. Certain potatoes do not want to come out of the ground. When potatoes are left in anaerobic environments, they can rot. The ones that are picked may have quality issues and ultimately won’t be kept in storage. Some contracts won’t get fulfilled.
The challenging harvesting conditions are having an impact on the free market. There was a brief period of overstock, but now there is less available. The price of potatoes on the free market increased from EUR8 to EUR20 per 100 kg in a matter of weeks. Dry, nutritious potatoes are in high demand for both export and industry. We’ll find out in the upcoming weeks how many potatoes can still be lifted. There might be a brief supply of damp areas available. However, there is no reason why prices couldn’t decrease over time. In the long run, early contract delivery may potentially cause shortages (spring 2024).
“Less hectarage (94.100 ha, -6,6 % vs 2022), fewer and bigger tubers than usual, and more downgraded seeds in the Benelux, France, Germany, Denmark, and Scotland, will lead to a 20 % decrease of seed availability for 2024. Seed potato growers should be the first to benefit from the price increases announced for seed potatoes,” the NEPG analysts concluded.