The North-Western Potato Growers (NEPG) projected at their last meeting before Potato Europe 2022 that the global potato production in the EU-04 NEPG countries (Belgium, Germany, France, and the Netherlands) would be down by 7 to 11%.

The potential final hectarage of the NEPG zone (EU-04) in 2022 will be 510.938 ha, a global increase of 3.2% over last year and a 1.7% increase over the five-year average. Dutch farmers planted 7.7% more land than in 2021. The global output should range between 20 and 21m tons, depending on final growth gains.

Global potato production has been reduced across the NEPG zone following a long and unusually dry and hot summer. Situations differ by country and region, with Belgian and French farmers suffering the most (around 20% less for Belgians) and Dutch farmers suffering the least, particularly those north of the great rivers, where more rainfall was recorded. Some farmers will not be able to deliver their expected contracts due to low yields.

“Summer 2022 will be recorded as a difficult and a very costly year, either because yields per ha are low, but also because energy and irrigation costs were much higher. The heat waves we had throughout the summer will have caused some quality and storage issues. There are reports of not only too high underwater weights and not enough tuber length, but more worrisome also of the lifting of dormancy,” a recent NEPG press release shows.

Even if rain improves soil and harvesting conditions, bruising may occur while lifting. Early germination in storages will also make the upcoming storage season more difficult and costly. Weight loss and wastage (due to bruising, for example) will most likely be greater.

Unlike 2018-19 when potatoes could be introduced from other parts of Europe (i.e. mostly from Poland), this season no potatoes will be coming from elsewhere while processor’s needs have strongly increased in the last years.

What Should Farmers Plant or Sow Next Spring?

Current contract prices for 2022 – 2023 were signed early in the year, and their prices were acceptable, but after the war started, and during the whole of the last six months, production costs have dramatically risen. Actual contract prices do not cover the additional costs farmers have been facing and are due to face in the coming weeks and months. With the free buy market stable at EUR25/100 kg, and future market quotations for April 2023 not very much higher, farmers are very concerned about their potato incomes. Rising costs should be shared by the whole potato chain.

With very much higher costs (electricity, diesel, fertilizers) and higher risks linked to climate change and the war in Ukraine, some potato farmers wonder what they should plant or sow in the spring of 2023. With no guarantees from buyers, potato producers could end up deciding to plant or sow more alternative crops.