According to the French National Interprofessional Potato Committee’s (CNIPT) analysis of the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the situation there could amplify the widespread galloping inflation experienced in most of the EU countries.

Moreover, the sector could face a sharp increase in the potato production costs not only for farmers (fertilizers, seeds, energy) but also for the industry where the cost of gas has an important weight as well as the amounts of packaging.

CNIPT especially stresses out that strong tensions are expected in energy matters (Russia is the first exporter of natural gas to the EU with 44% of its imports) and by extension in the price of nitrogen fertilizers. Tensions over oil have already risen. Along with this, logistics flows would thus be interrupted due to difficulties related to transport (road and sea), costs, and lack of drivers.

According to Agronews Castilla Y Leon, for Ukraine, the war could affect current conservation potato flows to Central and Eastern European countries. This country is a major producer of tubers, but due to its significant domestic consumption, it remains a net importer of around 250,000 tons each year. Its main suppliers are Poland, Lithuania, and Romania. France exports little directly to Ukraine but sends significant flows of potatoes to neighboring countries that it re-exports to Ukraine. “The consequences of the war could therefore be important for the sector due to the rebound effect,” experts say.

When it comes to Russia, it also imports frozen fries (and other processed potatoes), up to 100,000 tonnes, exclusively from the EU (Netherlands, Poland, Germany, Belgium, and France). The conflict could lead to a paralysis of these flows which would be transferred to other destinations.