The total amount of Canadian potatoes stored as of April 1, 2023, is 3.1% higher than it was at the same time in 2022 and significantly higher than the three-year average for April.

According to the disappearance data, 580,000 tons of potatoes were shipped from storage in March 2023, up from 505,000 tons in February. This is 16% more than the five-year average for March disappearance and almost exactly on par with March shipments of 585,000 tons.

“In the Fresh potato sector, many benefited from good demand in March leading up to St Patrick’s Day and Easter in early April, with shipments for the month up compared to February for all provinces except Ontario and Alberta. Other than Quebec and Manitoba, all provinces showed an increased movement of potatoes in the processing sector in March over February, and Quebec, Ontario, and Alberta showed a large jump in shipments of seed potatoes for the month compared to last, not surprisingly as growers start to prepare for planting,” according to a recent UPGC press release.

Holdings of Fresh potatoes are down 7.2% overall when compared to last year but are still well above previous years due to increases in the initial crop in the East of the country last year and this year. Canadian growers and packers shipped 170,000 tons of fresh potatoes during March, well up from the 130,000 tons in February, mostly due to boosted demand and extra retail promotions for St Patrick’s Day in March and leading up to the Easter holiday in April.

“Concerns about the sluggish movement of red potatoes in certain areas of the country early in the year seem to have dissipated with the increased shipments in March and continued high exports to the US. With fryers and dehy digging into the Fresh pile throughout the season and an overall tightness in the market across North America due to lower production in the US, many areas are now focusing closely on stocks and the forecasted transition to new crop later in the summer, metering out storage to support existing customers and contracts. Although Florida came to market early with a good crop, the cold and rainy weather in California impacting yields and sizing, as well as emergence delayed in the Columbia Basin, have created some concern that early crops may not be there to carry the old crop into the new if demand keeps at the current pace; weather in the next few weeks will certainly be a determining factor, including for planting in many areas,” according to the document.

385,000 tons of processed potatoes were moved off the market in March, up 11% from February. Alberta witnessed the highest month-over-month gain in this sector, while Manitoba and Quebec saw decreases. Except for Alberta, which is still showing increased holdings of processing potatoes, which is not surprising given the increase in planted acreage and production this season, most provinces are showing a decrease when comparing 2022/23 and 2021/22 holdings at the same period. The 1.435 million tons of potatoes in storage as of April 1 are only 3.5% more than March of last year and 9.3% more than the three-year average, demonstrating the ongoing rise in demand in the processing sector and consequently increased planted acres.

“To keep processing plants running at capacity in response to continued high global demand, particularly for frozen fries, we are still seeing strong exports to the US and movement from east to west, from both fresh and processing storage. Contract negotiations continue across North America, with only the Columbia Basin fully complete (negotiated last fall) and growers are hesitant to commit to acreage without contract pricing in place to cover ever-increasing input costs,” the same release reveals.

As of April 1, 2023, the total seed inventory in Canada is 425,000 tons, 14.3% above last year at this time and 14.9% over the three-yr. average level, which is interesting compared to stock levels in March that were only 9% above historic levels, which would indicate that again this month’s 2023 movement isn’t quite as good as in previous years for the same period. Cold weather and a lot of snow still on the ground in most of the country, combined with the tight seed market this year, may be causing the slower movement of seed this season.

“Without contracts negotiated in the processing sector as well, growers have most likely booked seed due to a tight market but may not have shipped yet until they have acreage confirmed. Despite what the percentages show for stocks, the disappearance of seed potatoes in March 2023 was just over 50,000 tons, led by shipments out of Quebec, Ontario, and Alberta and up 67% from shipments in February, however well below the same month in 2022, close to 31% lower,” the UPGC experts concluded.