AHDB Potatoes Market Intelligence analysts estimate the total area planted with potatoes in Great Britain this season is 121,000 hectares.

The figure was announced Monday, June 26 during a public webinar. This is up by 4% on the previous year, the same as 2014 and at a similar level to the area planted in 2012 and 2013.

The increase in area in Britain matches similar estimates from across the channel. The North-west European Potato Growers (NEPG), which covers Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, France and the UK, estimated a combined increase of 3.6% for last month.

Despite area increase, final production figures will depend on the yield of potatoes per hectare. AHDB market analysts’ considered various yield scenarios, pointing to a likely rise in production. Amber Cottingham said: “A five-year average yield of 44.7 tons per hectare (t/ha) would see a production increase of 4%. This average includes 2012, which was an extremely low yielding year due to adverse weather. If we exclude 2012 from the average it becomes 46.7t/ha, harvest at that rate would result in an 8% increase in potatoes on the market compared to the 2016/17 season.”

The season average price for potatoes in the 2013 and 2014 seasons, which each had a similar planted area to the estimate for this season, was GBP154 per ton and GBP127 per ton respectively. This season average prices include potatoes sold on a contract with retailers or on the open market, known as ‘free-buy’.

Cottingham said: “There is still a lot of growing time remaining in the season, so nothing can be taken for granted at this stage. An increase in production of between 4% and 8% might sound sensible, but if this season sees another record high-yielding year such as 2015 then production could be as high as 5.9 million tones. This would be 13% up on the previous season. Although if weather events change dramatically and yields take a nosedive then production could still be as low 4.5 million tons, a 14% decrease in production on the previous season.” In August AHDB will update the estimate to include the varieties of potatoes grown and regional figures.

Regarding consumer insights, AHDB analyst Emily Bradshaw, highlighted that the UK grocery retail is changing, mentioning factors as population ageing and the new structure of the society (people getting married later, having children later). Bradshaw added that the continued drive for convenience, the movement from meat centered meals to ethnic and continental-based cuisines and health as reasons for food choice were the triggers for potato consuming in the UK, as shoppers tried to find foods that meet their requirements.

According to a research conducted by AHDB and Kantar Wordpanel, the occasion for consumption of different carbohydrates indicated bread on the first position, followed by fresh and frozen potatoes products.

When asked about how healthy they think potatoes are, 69% of British consumers said they are very healthy. When asked about which is the healthier option from rice, pasta and potatoes, 32% of respondents chose potatoes.