During the January-March 2024 quarter, the top manufacturers of French fries worldwide delivered 1.10m tons of fries and other frozen potato goods to consumers outside their local trading zones. This is 4,082.3 tons, or 0.4%, less than the amount exported in the previous year.

In comparison to 2023, seven out of the eleven countries that export French fries showed growth. During the quarter, only the Netherlands, Poland, Germany, and Belgium experienced a decrease in volume. Several smaller exporters, including those from Canada, China, France, New Zealand, and Turkey, reported first-quarter sales gains in the double digits. The trade statistics do not include commerce between the U.S. and Canada, trade inside the EU, or exports from China to Hong Kong and Macao.

Trade data show volume increases in French fry purchases by six of the top 10 major importers. However, four major importers, the U.K., Japan, the U.S., and Australia, reduced purchases during the quarter.

European External French Fry Exports Down 4.4%

EU fryers shipped 736,634 tons pounds of French fries and other frozen potato products to external customers during the first quarter. That fell 34,110 tons, or 4.4%, short of year-earlier sales. The two largest French fry exporters, Belgium and The Netherlands reduced shipments during the quarter. Belgium’s exports totaled 425,696 tons, down 2,812 tons, or 0.7%, from last year. At 239,542 tons, exports from The Netherlands dropped by 32,250 tons, or 11.9%. France’s first-quarter exports climbed by 9,389 tons to a record 36,015 tons. Germany’s exports fell by 3,674 tons to 19,685 tons. Poland’s first-quarter sales dropped 4,808 tons below 2023 sales to 15,921 tons. EU fryers captured 66.6% of the global French fry business, down from 69.4% a year ago.

North American French Fry Sales to Offshore Markets Up 6.8%

North American fryers shipped 258,275 tons of frozen potato products to offshore markets during the first quarter of 2024. That is 16,420 tons more than the year-earlier export volume, a 6.8% increase. Following a 6.73% decline in January, February offshore exports exceeded the 2023 pace by 14.1%. French fry exports maintained that upward trend during March, climbing 13.9% above year-earlier shipments. The increase in Canadian offshore sales accounted for 85.1% of the first-quarter export growth. U.S. fryers exported 207,019 tons of frozen potato products during the quarter. That is 2,540 tons more than they exported during the same timeframe in 2023, a 1.2% increase. Canada exported 51,301 tons of French fries and other frozen products to offshore markets during the first quarter. That exceeded year-earlier sales by 13,879 tons, or 37.2%. North American fryers captured 23.3% of the first-quarter global French fry business, up from 21.8% during the first quarter of 2023.

Exports Increase From Argentina, China, New Zealand, Turkey

Smaller exporting countries combined to ship 14% more frozen products during the first quarter than they exported a year earlier. Argentina exported 44,452 tons of French fries during the first quarter of 2024. That is 1,224 tons more than year-earlier sales, a 2.8%. Argentine fryers captured 4% of the global French fry export business during the quarter.

China exported a record 39,643 tons of frozen potato products outside of greater China during the first quarter of 2024. That is 4,762 tons more than it exported a year earlier, a 13.6% increase. China’s share of the global French fry market rose to 3.6% from 3% in 2023. External exports have grown significantly during the past five years. French fry exports totaled just 1,632 tons during the first quarter of 2019.

New Zealand exported 14,514 tons of French fries during the first quarter. That exceeded year-earlier sales by 2,404 tons, or 19.7%. New Zealand captured 1.3% of the global market.

Turkey has become a major French fry exporter during the past six years. The country exported 12,473 tons of frozen potato products during the first quarter. That is 5,307 tons, or 73.9%, more than year-earlier sales. Turkey captured 1.1% of the first-quarter global French fry business.

North American Fryers Could Continue to Expand Their Market Share

Global French fry exports have grown by an average annual rate of 5.2% during the previous 10 years. European exports have been held back by raw-product supply constraints during the 2023-2024 processing season. EU processors are planning to resume export growth when the 2024 crop comes online. Combined acreage in the five major European exporting countries is expected to increase by 2-3% for the 2024 crop. European growers have had a challenging planting season. Much of this year’s potato crop was planted later than usual due to heavy rainfall.

On the other hand, most North American processors have access to an adequate supply of raw products from the 2023 crop. Three of the four North American fryers are running plants at capacity and have had to turn away business. Those processors could run out of contracted potatoes earlier than expected. Some open-market potatoes have been purchased recently at relatively low prices.

Analysts expect the North American growers to plant 3-5% fewer acres to potatoes in 2024. Nevertheless, planting and crop development are ahead of schedule in most of the major processing states and provinces. That could support strong yields for the 2024 potato crop.

Long-term trends suggest that global French fry demand growth will likely continue. That may allow North American fryers to expand their share of the global French fry market.